From: Hiroshi Ogawa, Nippon Meteor Society, Japan 
Date: Fri, 14 Nov 2003 23:23:24 +0900


2003 Leonids FLASH result by Japanese Visual Observation.
1499 trail was predicted around 15:00-18:00 13/14 night.
It was clear sky in Japan. So, many observed data were
reported. Most of observers said "Almost of meteors were
faint".


---------------------------------------------------------
    2003 Leonids FLASH in JAPAN (Visual Observation)
             (The Nippon Meteor Society)
        - calculated by Shigeo UCHIYAMA(NMS) -
---------------------------------------------------------

(1) Daily Result

 DATE(UT)  Nind.  Teff  LEO  HRave  ZHRave  Err.
-------------------------------------------------
 Nov  13d   17   39.2  438  11.2     54.4  2.6

(2) Hourly Result

   DATE  (UT)  Nobs  Teff  LEO  HRave  ZHRave  Err.
------------------------------------------------------
 Nov 13d 16:00  10    6.3   30    4.8    38.0   6.9
 Nov 13d 17:00  12    9.0   70    7.8    46.1   5.5
 Nov 13d 18:00  15   11.6  146   12.6    59.2   4.9
 Nov 13d 19:00  12    9.3  132   14.2    56.7   4.9
 Nov 13d 20:00   4    3.0   60   20.0    63.1   8.1

 Total Leonid meteors :  438
 Total Observed Time  :   39.2hr

* excluding:observations under unfavorable condition
   (Lm<4.0mag, Cl>=0.3, RP-h<15deg)

Nind.: the number of observers during night
Nobs : the number of observers
Teff : observed period (hr)
LEO  : the number of Leonid meteors
HRave: average HR
ZHRave:average ZHR population index = 2.2
Err. : ZHRave/sqrt(LEO)

Observers (17observers):
Erika MATSUMOTO, Erina YANAGIDA, Hiroshi OGAWA,
Kayo MIYAO, Kazuhiro SUMIE, Kazuhiro OSADA,
Kazumi TERAKUBO, Ken-ichi FUSHIMI, Koetsu SATO,
Masayuki TODA, Masayuki YAMAMOTO, Mikiya SATO,
Satoshi KARIYA, Shigeo UCHIYAMA, Takashi SEKIGUCHI,
Takema HASHIMOTO, Tomoko SATO,

(We also received by Minako OHTA)

----------
In this time, since this report is FLASH for whole
Leonid period, population index is 2.2
On 13/14 night, however, there were many faint meteors.
This means a large population index. Therefore, Mr.Shigeo
UCHIYAMA caluclated other population index as following.

--Daily Result
DATE(UT)    r    ZHRave  Err.
-----------------------------
Nov.13d    2.5    63.5   3.0
Nov.13d    3.0    78.4   3.7
Nov.13d    3.5    92.8   4.4

--Hourly Result

  DATE         ZHR(ave)   ZHR(ave)   ZHR(ave)
  (UT)          r=2.5       r=3.0     r=3.5
-------------------------------------------
Nov. 13d 16:00   44.2       54.3       64.3
Nov. 13d 17:00   54.1       67.4       80.4
Nov. 13d 18:00   69.6       86.8      103.9
Nov. 13d 19:00   66.3       82.1       97.3
Nov. 13d 20:00   71.7       84.8       96.7

When population index is large, ZHR is neary 100.
Then we do not calculate population index from observed
magnitude distribution yet. If population index is
around 3.5 or 3.5<, we can say the prediction was true.

 --- about population index on 13/14 night in Japan ---

            LEO                     nonLEO
Month day    N    dM    r    Err.    N    dM     r   Err.
----------------------------------------------------------
 11  13/14  389  2.38  3.74  0.26   605  2.22  4.11  0.21

N : the numer of meteors (with magnitude distribution report)
dM: Lm - Mave  (Lm: Limitting magnitude, Mave: the average of meteors)
r : populatin index
Err.: error of popilation index(r)
  Population index and its errors are calculated by the
  paper by Arlt(WGN)

nonLEO includes Taurids(N and S), Sporadic and other meteor showers
except for Leonids.

On 13/14, Leonid population index was high value. When population
index adopt 3.74, ZHR is 97.5 (13/14night average). Therefore,
we can say this value is almost the same as predictions.