From: Joe Rao, New York Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1998 18:21:03 EST The last time we were in a similar Earth-comet geometry for the Leonids, the shower peaked 14 hours early in 1965 and 13 hours early in 1932. So the "15 hour surprise" for 1998 should not have been a total surprise! We in fact, made a strong allusion to this right here on meteorobs@latrade.com just a week ago. As for anticipating a similar scenario for 1999, I don't think it will happen: The Great 1966 Leonid Storm came approximately an hour after we passed the node of 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. That pretty much would suggest that the prediction of a peak near 2 hours UT on November 18 should still hold for Europe, north Africa and western Asia. Am still investigating the '33 Leonids to see how it may "jive" with this timing. I'll have more detailed comments next week. ------------- From: Robert Lunsford, San Diego, CA Date: Wed, 18 Nov 1998 16:28:27 -0800 As Joe Rao has mentioned before we need to look HISTORICALLY at the Leonids and not THEORETICALLY. I don't want to dampen anyone's enthusiasm but I also do not want people to be mislead and start planning their trip to the west coast of North America or Hawaii just yet for next year's display. The facts are that the Leonids peaked 13 hours before nodal crossing back in 1965. A similar timing occurred again this year. This does not mean that the 1999 Leonids will again peak 13 hours before nodal crossing. The fact is in 1966 the peak actually occurred one hour AFTER nodal crossing. Nodal crossing in 1999 occurs at 01:48 Universal Time. If it again occurs one hour later then maximum activity will occur at 02:48 UT or 09:48 PM EST and 06:48 PST. This does no good to North America as the radiant is well below the horizon at these times. It seem that in 1999 our friends in Europe and Western Africa have the ringside seats! John is correct in stating that scientific expeditions should scatter themselves throughout the world. So does anybody got a spare ticket to the Canary Islands?